Former President Donald Trump and incumbent Joe Biden are looking like the presumptive nominees for the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee, respectively. The big question on everyone’s mind is which one will inhabit the White House next year.
Since Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election and Biden defiantly said he will run again, the odds for which one will win have shifted repeatedly. Biden started the race with a strong lead in the polls while Trump slowly chipped away at that advantage.
Statistician and writer Nate Silver strongly leaned into one of the two candidates a year ago. But in the months since he has switched his pick for one key reason. He believes age is the deciding factor.
From The Daily Wire:
“If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump,” Silver began, adding later in his article that in recent months, “Biden’s situation has become considerably worse.”“If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite,” Silver wrote. “But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he’s probably the underdog.”
Silver is the co-founder and former editor-in-chief of polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight. His comments came in an article in his Silver Bulletin newsletter this week. He keyed in on Biden’s age, 81, and Trump’s age, 77, and how each of them is able to handle the rigors of campaigning.
Silver pointed to Biden’s regular refusal to sit down for significant media interviews, like before the Super Bowl, and how this exposes his frailty due to age. Silver’s latest commentary follows an article in November where he suggested Democrats push a different candidate in 2024 if Biden doesn’t run a “normal campaign.”
“Yes, it’s a huge risk and, yes, Biden can still win,” Silver said. “But he’s losing now and there’s no plan to fix the problems other than hoping that the polls are wrong or that voters look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it.”
Biden is struggling against polling headwinds with his severely low favorability rating and Trump’s surge into the lead in national polling averages. The recent special counsel report that described Biden as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” didn’t help his campaign.
The next steps in the Biden campaign could result in a sinking campaign. Silver said it is a must for Biden to show voters that he can handle tough public appearances.
“Or he needs to stand down,” Silver added in a post on X. “Or he’s probably going to lose to Trump.”
Key Takeaways:
- Surprise prediction from prominent pollster showed Biden is on track to lose to Trump.
- Nate Silver said Democrats have no plans to fix the problems as Trump gains steam.
- Biden’s age and avoiding tough media interviews showed he’s weak as a candidate.
Source: The Daily Wire
